This paper examines the relationship between interest payments as a percentage ofgovernment revenue and the stability of reserve currencies, identifying critical thresh-olds that historically preceded currency crises or the loss of reserve currency status.Through detailed analysis of cases including the British pound sterling, Argentine peso,Greek drachma, and Japanese yen, we identify a consistent pattern where fiscal crisesemerge when interest payments reach 20-30% of government revenue. This thresh-old appears remarkably stable across different historical periods, economic systems,and levels of development. These findings have profound implications for the UnitedStates, where interest payments are projected to rise from 19.5% of revenue in 2024to 63.4% by 2028, far exceeding historical crisis levels. The paper analyzes both do-mestic challenges (including demographic pressures, political gridlock, and structuraleconomic issues) and international pressures (such as de-dollarization initiatives, dig-ital currency development, and changing geopolitical dynamics) that could acceleratea potential crisis. We examine potential policy responses across fiscal, monetary, andstructural domains, while acknowledging the significant political and practical chal-lenges to implementation. The analysis suggests that the convergence of these factorscreates an unprecedented risk to dollar stability, potentially requiring preventive actionbefore critical thresholds are breached to avoid a disorderly adjustment in the globalmonetary system.

Many economic theories advocate that currency issuance only needs to be proportional to social value. Even in Keynesian economics, excessive currency issuance is only regarded as a means to stimulate economic development during an economic downturn cycle. However, through our research, we have found that even in an economic environment without economic cycles and in steady development, excessive currency issuance is still indispensable. The reason is that every capitalist and individual is in pursuit of interests, so only keeping currency issuance proportional to social value will cause society to lose the source power of creating value. This article will use an extremely simple model to explain the necessity of excessive currency issuance and welfare policies. Although our model is extremely simple, it still has certain value and can assist countries in formulating reasonable monetary policies and even economic policies.

This paper aims to leverage the advancements in General Computer Control (GCC) to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of risk management operations in financial institutions. Specifically, we introduce an LLM-based Robotic Process Automation (RPA) framework designed to enhance front-line employee work, adapt to the specific needs of financial institutions, and automate tasks requiring minimal cognitive effort. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework, stress testing, a common task for risk management department, is used as a case study. The results show that the RPA system can improve efficiency, reduce costs, and minimize errors, all without significantly altering the existing workflow. Moreover, to address customer information security and prompts copyright protection issues, a storage method that separates the server from the client is used. Finally, empirical evidence implies that even models with weaker capabilities can achieve the desired work objectives when guided by detailed prompts.

In this paper we study the Fifa World Cup 2022 matches up to the Final. In the Group Stage, for the decided matches, the probability for a team with lower relative Gini coefficient to win was 22/38( (22-3)/(38-4) i.e. 19/34 in the most conservative estimate). The probability to win with lower HDI was 18/38 or, 1/2.11 i.e. less than half. The probability to win with lower Gini coefficients in the next three stages was 1/2.In the Round of Sixteen stage, the probability to win with lower HDI has swung to the opposite direction to 5/8 i.e. more than half, as in the previous World Cup. In the Quarter Final stage, the probability for a team with lower relative HDI to win was 3/4 i.e swung more to the right.In the Semi Final stage, the probability for a team with lower relative HDI to win was1/2 i.e. swung back to the center. In the Third Place Play-off, the team with lower relative Gini coefficient, higher HDI won. In the Final, the team with higher relative Gini coefficient, lower HDI won. The overall probability to win with lower relative Gini coefficient was 30/54(27/50).

In this paper we study the Fifa World Cup 2022 matches up to the Round of Sixteen. We find that the empirical evidence of lower Gini coefficient is continuing to decide the higher probability of winning of a country in a match in the FIFA World Cup 2022up to the Round of Sixteen. Moreover, in the Group Stage, probability to win with lower HDI was 18/37 or, 1/2.06 i.e. less than half. In the Round of Sixteen stage probability to win with lower HDI has swung to the opposite direction to 5/8 i.e. more than half, as in the previous World Cup.

We study the Penguin Dictionary of Economics by Graham Bannock and R. E. Baxter, the eighth edition. We draw the natural logarithm of the number of entries, normalised, starting with a letter vs the natural logarithm of the rank of the letter, normalised. We conclude that the Dictionary can be characterised by BP(4,$\beta H=0$) i.e. a magnetisation curve for the Bethe-Peierls approximation of the Ising model with four nearest neighbours with $\beta H=0$, in the absence of external magnetic field, H. $\beta$ is $\frac{1}{k_{B}T}$ where, T is temperature and $k_{B}$ is the tiny Boltzmann constant. This is the case with the Oxford Dictionary of Economics by J. Black, N. Hashimzade and G. Myles, we have studied before.

The article presents problems related the to long - only optimized (with the help of the Markowitz model) portfolio diversification with L2 regularization. The backtesting for stocks selected from some subset of S&P 500 index for the 2002 - 2019 year interval with Markowitz portfolio optimization with L2 regularization was performed. The expected return was varied from 0.1 to 0.25, the regularization parameter was varied in the range 0.05 - 0.15. The results of backtesting are shown. The geometrical average of annual return for year interval 2002 - 2019, was about 0.13 - 0.14 in all the parameter range. It has been exposed, that the mean annual portfolio return for this year range actually nearly not depends on the expected return and the regularization parameter, if they are changes in aforementioned range, but the minima and the maxima of the annual portfolio return, i.e. the variance of the annual portfolio return, moreover, shows more pronounced dependency on these parameters of the optimized portfolio. The data of the backtesting seems to show the heteroscedasticity of a stock market.

To illustrate that a Nash Equilibrium results from a flawed attempt to solve a game, this article studies two extensions of the classic oligopoly model of Cournot. The common cost function is quadratic, and the (still linear) inverse demand functions allow of differentiated goods. The industry has a maximal-profit set that is characterised by a constant profit-output ratio, independent of the number of firms and the slopes of the marginal-cost function and inverse demand functions. The maximal-profit set and the Pareto optimal set—which is the model’s solution—have a number of points in common, but in general do not coincide. The choice of parameters is discussed and six model variants are analysed numerically; in five of them, the incentives for merger according to noncooperative game theory are at odds with the rationale of economics. Some comments are made on the use of the model in experimental economics.

The problem is addressed of how (different types of) funding transactions may affect the repayment value of (credit or equity) claims; to this purpose a novel prove for the existence and uniqueness of the payment vector, which does not make (explicit) use of the fixed point theorem and allows for the presence of claims with different seniorities (i.e. credit and equity claims), is proposed. Different components of the overall displacement (the reduction of repayment value), related to i) seniority structure, ii) network of bilateral exposure and iii) imbalances between external loss and external capital, are calculated by sequentially relaxing different constraints in the mixed linear program used for calculating overall displacement. The possibility that more credit may reduce overall displacement (due to borrowing-from-Peter-to-pay-Paul effect) and more equity capital may on the contrary increase overall displacement (due to its role in the transmission of financial displacement) is exemplified, along with the possible negative dependence of relative displacement (the ratio between overall displacement and total claims) on total claims.

The assumption that each player conditions on the endogenous actions of his rivals when the players are unable to cooperate is inconsistent with the assumption of rational, optimising behavior.

In this paper, we demonstrate that there is an absolute physical limit on how small the smallest money unit can be, no matter how much we are able to improve our technology. The smallest money unit seems to be directly linked to the smallest possible energy unit needed to store one bit. If the smallest money unit is smaller than the cost of energy of storing one bit then there seems to be an arbitrage, which will also constrain money producers such as central banks from issuing money with a smaller denomination than this minimum money unit. Keywords: Money units, money creation, arbitrage, information theory, Launder limit, the Planck constant.

This paper is concerned with the derivation of a consistent formal method to allow for estimating the economic value of a Dash proposal. Standing on the Currency Fair Value[1] theory as rational financial pricing model of a currency, the paper will arrive at a straightforward and objective calculation tool, in the form of several simple equations. These will allow Masternode owners and individuals who submit proposals to the Dash treasury to estimate the expected value return of the economic proposals and thus, enable them to make more rational decisions. Development of this new model will require differential analysis of the fair value equation, as a basis for the analytical expressions expected by the main target audience. This analysis goes beyond the scope of Dash and many other currency research efforts may also drawn upon it. Keywords: Dash·Proposal·Quantitative Finance·Asset Pricing·Currency Fair Value·Investing

In this short communication, we review seven applications of NFL which we have explored in a number of papers: 1) Background: The purpose of this study is to review on how Neutrosophic Logic can be found useful in a number of diverse areas of interest; 2) Methods: we use logical analysis based on NL; 3) Results: Some fields of study may be found elevated after analyzed by NL theory; and 4) Conclusions: We can expect NL theory can be applied in many areas of research too, both in applied mathematics, economics, and also physics. Hopefully the readers will find a continuing line of thoughts in our research in the last few years.

The authors submitted a comment to the Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (ICASA) in response to the call for comment in the Discussion Document on Digital Sound Broadcasting (DSB) that appeared in South Africa’s Government Gazette No. 41534 of 29 March 2018. Consequently, the second author made an oral submission at the public hearings on this issue at the ICASA premises in Sandton on 13 July 2018. In this document, we elaborate on the thinking in our submission in response to a request in this regard from Advocate Dimakatso Qocha, the Councillor who chaired the hearing. We still intend address ourselves only to Question 1 of the Discussion Document. Is there a need for the introduction of DSB technologies in South Africa? We are convinced that there is no compelling argument for the introduction of the technology in the way apparently requested by many in the industry. We do not however oppose the liberalisation of signal distribution or a technology (and content) neutral approach to spectrum management and tradeable broadcasting and spectrum rights. If these were introduced, broadcasters would be able to decide on a purely commercial basis when and if to introduce digital broadcasts and new entry to the market would be possible through the purchase of appropriate rights.

In this paper we have found empirical evidence of a rising trend of lower Gini coefficient deciding the higher probability of winning of a country in a match in the FIFA World Cup. We have also studied the role of HDI in different stages of the football cup.

A theoretical self-sustainable economic model is established based on the fundamental factors of production, consumption, reservation and reinvestment, where currency is set as a unconditional credit symbol serving as transaction equivalent and stock means. Principle properties of currency are explored in this ideal economic system. Physical analysis reveals some facts that were not addressed by traditional monetary theory, and several basic principles of ideal currency are concluded: 1. The saving-replacement is a more primary function of currency than the transaction equivalents; 2. The ideal efficiency of currency corresponds to the least practical value; 3. The contradiction between constant face value of currency and depreciable goods leads to intrinsic inflation.

Given the announcement by Harvard College to stop publishing difficulty rating for courses \cite{crimson}, a need has arisen for alternative methods of information gathering among undergraduates. In this paper, we propose different prediction market mechanisms, detailing user input/output, contract definitions, and payment rules for each of the proposed mechanisms. The goal of each mechanism is to obtain accurate predictions that could replace Q-guide data (overall course quality, difficulty rating, and workload rating). We further discuss properties of each prediction market, such as the truthfulness incentives of for individual agents, individual agent's optimal policies, and expected results from each market. We conclude with a discussion and explanation of a simple toy implementation of the market, detailing design consideration that might affect user behaviour in our market, and laying the groundwork for future expansion and testing.

An achievement of De Finetti for which he has received little recognition thus far is his contribution to the field of vector maximisation in two articles published in 1937, Problemi di "optimum" and Problemi di "optimum" vincolato. The speech will put his contribution in historical perspective and will discuss its importance for economic theory.

This thesis discusses the claim of 16 computational finance articles according to which it is possible to predict the stock market using sentiment analysis of social media data. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this is indeed true or not. In economic theory, the efficient market hypothesis states that markets are not predictable, that they follow a random walk and that irrational behaviour cancels out in the aggregate. However, behavioural economics research shows that investors are in fact subject to predictable biases which affect the markets. This study uses data from the WeFeel project that analyses tweets in English to infer social mood on a world scale. It also uses data from the Wilshire 5000 index from June 2014 to March 2015. The hypothesis is that changes in aggregate mood arousal mediate stock market fluctuations. Yet linear regression shows that there is no relation between emotional arousal and the stock market, nor between primary emotions and the stock market. Hence, the conclusion is that global social sentiment as derived from social media has no relation with stock market fluctuations. Further research may better focus on social media specialised in the stock markets, such a finance micro-blogging data. Keywords: sentiment analysis, efficient market hypothesis, social networks, computational finance, behavioural finance, stock market, emotion recognition, stock market prediction, social sentiment, behavioural economics

This paper seeks to shine a light on some glaring economic problems of contemporary society. Too often economic issues are framed in the context of moral wedges that divide people. Here we select issues for discussion that likely can be solved and do not strictly require the resolution of any difficult moral quandaries. We show that certain popular debates are not so interesting because sufficient evidence exists to identify the relevant premises as true and false. We suggest an economic program based in part on hypothetical new energy resources that should guide the United States and the Earth's other national states towards a more equitable valley in the space of all economic configurations. This paper is intended to be persuasive and not purely expository.

The so-called Islamic Finance Requirements induce the notion of an IFR-compliant financial system. IFR-compliance provides an axiomatic approach to Islamic finance. In order to deal with potential mismatches between IFR-compliance and Islamic principles, IFR-compliant financial systems are referred to as Crescent-Star finances and IFR serves as axioms for Crescent-Star finance (CSF). Literally following that approach negative interest rates are to be avoided in a Crescent-Star financial system just as well as positive interest rates. W.r.t. Islamic finance Crescent-Star finance may admit false positives, i.e. IFR-compliant models of finance that nevertheless fail to qualify as sound from an Islamic perspective, but there won't be false negatives. A weaker version CSFn of CSF is formulated which formally permits negative interest rates, and a strengthening CSFpls of CSF is defined in which it is always required that profit and loss sharing takes place in connection with lending. It is argued that if only informational money is taken into account, CSFn finance prevents the occurrence of negative interest rates. It is shown that the situation is quite different for physical monies. CSFpls finance excludes negative interest rates as well as positive interest rates.

Some comments are made on the societal impact of software engineering, with a focus on the impact of software engineering concepts on the development of informational money as well as on the concept of money at large.

It is argued that a Bitcoin-style money-like informational commodity may constitute an effective instrument for the further development of Islamic Finance. The argument involves the following elements: (i) an application of circulation theory to Bitcoin with the objective to establish the implausibility of interest payment in connection with Bitcoin, (ii) viewing a Bitcoin-like system as a money-like exclusively informational commodity with the implication that such a system need not support debt, (iii) the idea that Islamic Finance imposes different requirements compared to conventional financial policies on a money concerning its use as a tool for achieving social and economic objectives, and (iv) identification of two aspects of mining, gambling and lack of trust, that may both be considered problematic from the perspective of compliance with the rules of Islamic Finance and a corresponding proposal to modify the architecture of mining in order to improve compliance with these rules.

This document provides translations of two important but neglected articles of Bruno de Finetti, Problemi di "optimum" and Problemi di "optimum" vincolato. The articles deal with the theory of simultaneously maximising a number of functions. A major field of application is economic theory, which through the assumption of rational, maximising behaviour of all participants defines a set of interdependent maximum problems as its model of the world.

This paper tries to rekindle the revolution in economic theory that Von Neumann and Morgenstern intended to unleash, but that was smothered by Nash. The assumption of rational, maximising behaviour by the participants in a social exchange economy leads to a set of interdependent maximum problems. The appropriate treatment of this kind of problem is provided by the theory of simultaneous maximisation, systematically studied for the first time by Bruno de Finetti. Cooperative game theory is a branch of simultaneous maximisation. Non-cooperative game theory errs in deriving the first-order conditions and yields conflicting outcomes for equivalent problems; a prime example is the Cournot equilibrium's differing from the Bertrand equilibrium. The analysis implies that large parts of positive economics must be revised, that normative economics is impossible, and that a stronger assumption is needed for economics to make determinate predictions of how money makes the world go round.

The hypothesis that the global economy has entered, or is nearing, the "end of growth" has been proposed in the literature. Overall, we find no significant evidence to support this hypothesis, or that such economic limits are about to be reached in the near-term. Our conclusions in no way diminish concerns over current and proposed rates of non-renewable resource extraction and the negative impacts of continuing human population growth and industrial expansion on the biosphere. However, any natural system limits that have been reached or exceeded (or are about to be) do not appear to be causing sufficiently large negative feedbacks on global economic growth within the scope of the most commonly employed socio-economic indicators in order to warrant claims that future economic growth will halt or regress.

In 2008, the Canadian province of British Columbia introduced a carbon tax starting at CAD$10 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) and rising by CAD$5/tonne CO2e/year to a 2012-2013 value of CAD$30/tonne CO2e. In the current work, we find no clear evidence over the short post-tax period of record that unequivocally links British Columbia's carbon tax to significant reductions in provincial greenhouse gas emissions. There are indications the implementation of this tax may have negatively impacted British Columbia's economic performance relative to the rest of Canada. A longer post-tax period of record is likely necessary in order to reliably determine what, if any, economic and environmental effects have been generated from British Columbia's carbon tax.

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) are receiving significant attention from nations with substantial and sustained foreign reserves derived via natural resource development and/or manufacturing based export-led economies as a means of achieving intergenerational equity, government savings, and stable currency exchange rates. Based on an analysis of currency variability for representative export-led nations with and without SWFs between 1999 and 2012, the case for SWF-based currency sterilization requires further investigation. Furthermore, several nations undergoing active policy debates regarding the possible implementation of SWFs may not have current account balances suitable for accruing all perceived SWF benefits.

It is suggested that, unlike the long practiced traditional superficial approaches to human issues, like those pursued by Krugman among many others, one should give serious consideration to the frequent fact that individuals coming from the same family background, thus with the same racial, ethnic, cultural, economic and social initial conditions, often diverge immensely in their adult lives across ranges between honest work and crime, extremist and moderate politics, or atheism and religion, among others. Presently, no social, political or economics science deals in the least with that issue.

It is suggested that psychological aspects of the behaviour of the general population with respect to economics - advocated by Krugman, following the economic crises of 2008 - should be extended to economists as well, in order to avoid the excessive and mostly senseless polarization of economists in opposing ideological camps, a polarization still so dominant nowadays.

Several recent essays are presented on the difficulties scientific research and science researchers have by now been facing for a number of decades due to what goes by the name of "science management".

Two vastly different historical stages in wealth creation are the traditional one based on agriculture during past millennia, and the one based on science research in our present globalizing knowledge society. The differences happen to be so considerable, and the emergence of the second stage relatively so recent, that the awareness of the full range of consequences regarding the proper pursuit of science research, which is the root of wealth in our knowledge society, is missing to an extent that may, even in the medium term, seriously endanger the sustainability of modern human society.