Climate Research
[1]
vixra:2404.0046 [
pdf]
The Mathematics of Extratropical Cyclones Originating in the South of the South American Continent
Extratropical cyclones are common in the South Atlantic. They generally arise with the passage of cold fronts to the south of the South American continent, crossing the south of Chile and Argentina, in the regions of Puerto Natales, Punta Arenas (Chile), Rio Galegos, Rio Grande, El Calafate and Ushuaia (Argentina). The extratropical cyclone analyzed presented at its peak the very characteristic shape of a Chinese dragon. Many others were also analyzed. They present a mathematical form of a double Cotes Spiral curve. Here called the Dragonhead cyclone (DC), indicate a structural similarity with spiral galaxies, especially NGC 5247, in the constellation Virgo. With an area of influence and a size of around 3,247 thousand km2 at its peak, it moved quickly in a WNW direction, with an average speed of 76 km/h, with winds of 84 km/h at 100 km from the nucleus, as it passed north of the Falkland Islands (Malvinas Islands). In the data collected (Gobato et al., 2018-2023), and analyzed from the Dragonhead cyclone, it is clear that all extratropical cyclones that appear south of the South American continent, below 40° latitude, have the shape of a spiral curve, like the spiral galaxy. Most of these are in the form of a double Cote’s spiral curve.
[2]
vixra:2305.0084 [
pdf]
Double Spiral Galaxies and the Extratropical Cyclone in South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands
The work is focused on the comparative analysisof the shape of spiral galaxies and the ubtropical cyclone that formed north of Georgia Island and passed north of the South Sandwich Islands, in the South Atlantic Ocean. Subtropical cyclones with double spirals appear to be common in theseareas of the South Atlantic. A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone and some characteristics of an extratropical cyclone. They can form between the equator and the 50th parallel. In mathematics, a spiral is a curve which emanates from a point, moving farther away as it revolves around the point. The characteristic shape of hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons is a spiral. The characteristicequation of which spiral the Extratropical Cyclone (EC) Its double spiral shape, whose mathematical equation has already been defined as Cote’s spiral, Gobato et al. (2022) and similarlyLindblad (1964) show shape of double spiral
[3]
vixra:2211.0050 [
pdf]
Tornadoes Analysis Concordia, Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil, 2022 Season
Large storms such as tornadoes and extratropicalcyclones have become increasingly common in southern Brazil. The season of strong storms has been increasingly evident between autumn and winter in southern Brazil, such as hurricane Catarina. Several tornadoes were evidenced in2022 in this region, and the ones discussed here are from It’s and Concodia, which crossed the rural areas of Santa Catarina, causing great damage to their avian production. As the main focus, the one of Concordia was analyzed, classified as category F1, and approximate dimensions of 100m in diameter.
[4]
vixra:2204.0145 [
pdf]
Spiral Galaxies and Powerful Extratropical Cyclone in the Falklands Islands
A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that cyclone. They can form between the equator and the 50th parallel. In mathematics, a spiral is a curve which emanates from a point, moving farther away as it revolves around the point. The characteristic shape of hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons is a spiral. There are several types of turns, and determining the characteristic equation of which spiral the Extratropical Cyclone (EC) fits into is the goal of the work. The study demonstrates a double spiral for the EC similarly Lindblad (1964) demonstrates a double spiral, to demonstrate the structure of spiral galaxies. Despite the data obtained in the EC that passed through the southern tip of South America west and east of the Falklands Islands, everything indicates that the short occurrence ECs indicate the double spiral structure, but with the structure of a Cote’s double spiral.
[5]
vixra:2204.0103 [
pdf]
Spiral Galaxies and Extratropical Cyclone
A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone and some characteristics of an extratropical cyclone. They can form between the equator and the 50th parallel. In mathematics, a spiral is a curve which emanates from a point, moving farther away as it revolves around the point. The characteristic shape of hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons is a spiral. There are several types of turns, and determining the characteristic equation of which spiral the Extratropical Cyclone (EC) fits into is the goal of the work. The study demonstrates a double spiral for the extratropical cyclone, similarly Lindblad (1964) demonstrates a double spiral, to demonstrate the structure of spiral galaxies. Despite the data obtained in the EC that passed through the southern tip of South America west and east of the Falklands Islands, everything indicates that the short occurrence ECs indicate the double spiral structure, but with the structure of a Cote’s double spiral.
[6]
vixra:2202.0171 [
pdf]
Comparison of Instrumentally Measured Temperature with Other Instrumentally Measured or Observed Geophysical Quantities.
In this review, we demonstrate a striking similarity between instrumentally measured temperature, the speed of the magnetic North Pole as a proxy for the changes in the Earth's magnetic field, seismic activity, and UFO sightings as a proxy for energy transfer between near-Earth space and the Earth's atmosphere. New research (some as recent as 2021) points towards the Van Allen Belts as the main contributor to global warming.
[7]
vixra:2111.0024 [
pdf]
Tornado in Guatambu, Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil, Late Winter 2021 (Case Study)
The objective of this work is to analyze the occurrence or not of tornadoes in the city of Guatambu, state of Santa Catarina (SC), southern Brazil, at the end of the night of 13, at dawn on September 14, 2021. Alerts by the official agencies of the region of the probable occurrence of tornadoes and strong storms in the area between the northeast of Argentina, Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul. A tornado is the most violent windstorm on earth. The tornado is a rotating column of air that extends from a cloud to the ground. The analysis of satellite maps indicated the occurrence of storms, with probable formation of tornadoes in the municipality of Guatambu. Thus, confirming reports from residents, official bodies such as the Civil Defense of Santa Catarina, and the state’s meteorological system. It is likely that the formation of a tornado in the unicipality of Guatambu occurred between 01:20 UTC on and 02:10 UTC on Sep 14, 2021.
[8]
vixra:2012.0011 [
pdf]
Learning Drivers of Climate-Induced Human Migrations with Gaussian Processes
In the current context of climate change, extreme heat waves, droughts and floods are not only impacting the biosphere and atmosphere but the anthroposphere too. Human populations are forcibly displaced, which are now referred to as climate-induced migrants. In this work we investigate which climate and structural factors forced major human displacements in the presence of floods and storms during years 2017-2019. We built, curated and harmonized a database of meteorological and remote sensing indicators along with structural factors of 27 developing countries world-wide. We show how we can use Gaussian Processes to learn what variables can explain the impact of floods and storms in a context of forced displacements and to develop models that reproduce migration flows. Our results at regional, global and disaster-specific scales show the importance of structural factors in the determination of the magnitude of displacements. The study may have both societal, political and economical implications.
[9]
vixra:2010.0063 [
pdf]
Vortex Cotes’s Spiral in an Extratropical Cyclone in the Southern Coast of Brazil
Ae extratropical cyclone” is an at- mospheric phenomenon that occurs when there is a very rapid drop in central atmospheric pressure. This phenomenon, with its characteristic of rapidly lowering the pressure in its interior, generates very intense winds and for this reason it is called explosive cyclone, “cyclone bomb” CB. It was determined the mathematical equation of the shape of the extratropical cyclone, being in the shape of a spiral called "Cotes’s Spiral." In the case of CB, which formed in the south of the Atlantic Ocean, and passed through the south coast of Brazil in July 2020, causing great damages in several cities in the State of Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil. With gusts recorded of 116 km/h, atmospheric phenomenon – CB hit southern Brazil on June 30, the beginning of winter 2020, causing destruction in its influence over. In five hours the CB traveled a distance of 257.48 km (159.99 miles), at an average speed of 51.496 km/h (31.998 miles/h) 27.81 knots, moved towards ENE, with a low pressure center of 986 mbar, 07:20 UTC, approximate location 35◦S 45◦W, and 5 hours after 12:20 UTC had already grown and had a low pressure center of 972 mbar, approximate location 34◦S 42◦30’W. The temperatures of the clouds and the surface near the low pressure center of the CB. The temperature in the center of the CB is approximately 45◦C at 07:20 UTC, July 1, 2020. Five hours later, at 12:20 UTC, in the low pressure center of the CB, the temperature varies from 45◦C to -30◦C, indicating that the CB increases in size and further tapers its core, sucking a great amount of steam to high altitudes of water where it condenses quickly.
[10]
vixra:2009.0144 [
pdf]
Cotes’s Spiral Vortex in Extratropical Cyclone bomb South Atlantic Oceans
he characteristic shape of hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons is a spiral. There are several types of turns, and determining the characteristic equation of which spiral the "cyclone bomb" (CB) fits into is the goal of the work. In mathematics, a spiral is a curve which emanates from a point, moving farther away as it revolves around the point. An “explosive extratropical cyclone” is an atmospheric phenomenon that occurs when there is a very rapid drop in central atmospheric pressure. This phenomenon, with its characteristic of rapidly lowering the pressure in its interior, generates very intense winds and for this reason it is called explosive cyclone, bomb cyclone. It was determined the mathematical equation of the shape of the extratropical cyclone, being in the shape of a spiral called “Cotes’s Spiral." In the case of CB, which formed in the south of the Atlantic Ocean, and passed through the south coast of Brazil in July 2020, causing great damages in several cities in the State of Santa Catarina. With gusts recorded of 116 km/h, atmospheric phenomenon – “cyclone bomb" (CB) hit southern Brazil on June 30, the beginning of winter 2020, causing destruction in its influence over. In five hours the CB traveled a distance of 257.48 km (159.99 miles), at an average speed of 51.496 km/h (31.998 miles/h) 27.81 knots, moved towards ENE, with a low pressure center of 986 mbar, 07:20 UTC, approximate location 35◦S45◦W, and 5 hours after 12:20 UTC had already grown and had a low pressure center of 972 mbar , approximate location 34◦S 42◦30’W.
[11]
vixra:2002.0180 [
pdf]
Australia in Flames
Global warming is not only dangerous, it may bring some localized benefits too. However, more than half of the world's population lives more or less within 60 km of the sea. Rising sea levels and increasingly extreme weather are becoming more frequent and intense and may force the people to move. The lack of supply of fresh water will compromise hygiene and increase the risk of water-borne diseases and diseases transmitted through insects. Even if some are likely to be more vulnerable than others, at the end, the assumption is justified that all populations will be affected by a dramatic climate change. Global warming constitutes a global health threat too, i. e. more than 70,000 additional deaths were documented in Europe during the summer 2003. Of course, it’s clear that the true problems of human mankind are much deeper -- deeper than the consumption of huge proportion of the planet’s natural resources or shortages in long lasting values, deeper even than war or evolutionary disasters. Those who don't reach out to listen to the terrible silent screams of the already extinct are itself doomed to extinction. Keywords: hurricane, climate change --- anti dot --- measures --- quick help
[12]
vixra:1810.0291 [
pdf]
Gravity Differential And Applications Essay /The Potential of Water Cycle Management
Earth is a complex structure of different densities baked in the rotisserie of the Sun. It alters the densities or air, water, and ground. And, gravity is our natural home energy. Working with the centrifugal force of spiraling Earth, it drives the circulations of particle, gas, liquid, and matter in a spherical force field of Earth. Mimicking nature’s circulations of water and energy will benefit all lives greatly. It could be easier than we think.
[13]
vixra:1704.0317 [
pdf]
Study of Tornadoes that Have Reached the State of Paraná
Several tornadoes have solid recorded in the Midwest, Southeast and South of Brazil. The southern region of Brazil has been hit by several of them in the last decade, highlighted the state of Paraná a to record three tornadoes in 2015. The work is a survey of tornadoes that caused major damage to the Paraná population, relevance those who reached the Balsa Nova counties, Francisco Beltrão, Cafelândia, Nova Aurora and Marechal Cândido Rondon. The main cause because it is related to El Niño which has caused a significant rise in temperature and water vapor present in the atmosphere in the state’s regions in surroundings that influence the climate of the state. Another likely factor is the increase in global temperature of the planet, a ripple effect on the warming of Pacific Ocean waters. The meeting is the possibility of the formation of large storms that funnel and reach the states of Paraná and Santa Catarina. Overall fronts storms fall into two, forming a separation channel as a wave, their crests (storms) and valleys (lull), advancing the state of Paraná.
[14]
vixra:1605.0189 [
pdf]
Linear Temporal Interpolation Method in Etm+ Using Modis Data.
The main objective of the present work was to obtain synthetic ETM+ images with improved temporal resolution using MODIS radiometry to expand the applicability of this method to environmental issues that require detailed monitoring over time. To do this, we needed to verify the consistency between the data provided by ETM+ and MODIS. We used images from these sensors taken on different dates and in different test areas. We designed and validated a spatial resampling method based on statistical parameters and a linear interpolation method for diachronic data. The results confirm the consistency between MODIS and ETM+ data and their dependence on the spatial variability of the information. They also show that it is possible to obtain images derived from MODIS with the spatial resolution of ETM+ using a simple and robust linear interpolation method. Both results broaden the scope of these sensors’ application to environmental issues.
[15]
vixra:1309.0069 [
pdf]
The Truth About Climate Change
Climatology occupies the intersection of science policy and public understanding of science. In such a prominent position, the wide spectrum of climate opinions is remarkable. Society has achieved a paradigm in which global warming subscribers and non-subscribers are largely segregated by political affiliation. Since science is non-political, only a misunderstanding of the science can facilitate such a segregation. In the first section we analyze a recent study by Cook \emph{et al.} finding overwhelming scientific endorsement for the greenhouse theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). We find the popular reporting on Cook's result is not accurate. The aim of the following section is to clarify the science behind the most popular climate arguments and introduce the reader to some evidence that is not widely publicized. Even the astute non-climatologist should come away from this report with an enhanced understanding of relevant issues in modern climate science.
[16]
vixra:1303.0051 [
pdf]
Climate Change and Biofuel Wheat Production in Southern Saskatchewan: Long-Term Climate Trends Versus Climate Modeling Predictions
Climate modeling work has suggested biofuel wheat production in southern Saskatchewan, Canada, during the mid-21st century will be influenced by increasing annual precipitation, including precipitation increases in every month except July and August, increasing daily mean, minimum, and maximum air temperatures throughout the year, and substantial increases in the risk of wheat heat shock (temperatures>32.0 C). In the current study, we compare prior modeling predictions to historical trends in the number of days with maximum temperatures >32.0 C during July and August, the number of hours with maximum temperatures >32.0 C during July, as well as monthly and annual total precipitation, mean daily temperatures, and mean maximum daily temperatures for climate stations throughout southern Saskatchewan. We find no evidence of increasing trends for wheat heat shock days or hours during the mid-summer period in this region. In contrast, the majority of stations exhibit significantly declining temporal trends in wheat heat shock days and hours. Historical precipitation and temperature trends for the climate stations under consideration in southern Saskatchewan display significant inter- and intra-station heterogeneity throughout the year in terms of whether or not trends are evident, as well as their magnitude and direction. Consequently, caution must be exercised when extrapolating any case study analyses at a particular location to larger geographic areas of the province. Based on our analyses of historical climate data for southern Saskatchewan, it is unclear whether climate models are accurately predicting future climate change impacts on biofuel wheat production for this region in the mid-21st century.
[17]
vixra:1302.0032 [
pdf]
Declining Relative Humidity in the Thompson River Valley near Kamloops, British Columbia: 1990-2012
Potential time trends in relative humidity (RH) were investigated for the Kamloops climate station in south-central British Columbia, Canada, between 1990 and 2012. Mean monthly 6 am and 3 pm RH at Kamloops achieve annual minima during the March to September period with substantially higher early morning RH compared to the mid-afternoon period. Significant temporal declines in RH throughout the year are evident ranging from 1.5 to 5.7\%/decade. No significantly increasing temporal trends in RH were found. The findings indicate that a continuation of declining trends in RH for the study area may increase the quantity of dust and other atmospheric particulate generation from both natural and anthropogenic sources, possibly resulting in additional threats to local and regional air quality, thereby necessitating inclusion in air quality management planning and modeling efforts.
[18]
vixra:1301.0151 [
pdf]
Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Southwestern Saskatchewan Tell a Complex Long-Term Climate Change Story
Historical climate trends in southwestern Saskatchewan, Canada were analyzed using parametric linear regression and non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend detection approaches over various timeframes between 1886 and 2010. We find substantial variability for this region in the significance and magnitude of any temporal trends for daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures on an annual basis - as well as during the winter, spring, summer, and autumn periods - that is dependent on the time period chosen. Similar results are obtained for precipitation data in the study area. The results demonstrate that temperature and precipitation trends in southwestern Saskatchewan tell a complex long-term climate change story, containing substantial temporal trend heterogeneity, thereby necessitating caution when interpreting long-term climatic data - particularly in the context of larger-scale regional or global observations and predictions.
[19]
vixra:1212.0171 [
pdf]
Time Trends for Water Levels in Lake Athabasca, Canada
Potential time trends for water levels in Lake Athabasca, Canada, were investigated with particular emphasis on a critical examination of the available hydrometric record and other confounding factors mitigating against reliable trend detection on this sytem. Four hydrometric stations are available on Lake Athbasca, but only the Lake Athabasca near Crackingstone Point (07MC003) site has suitable - albeit temporally limited (1960-2010) - records for a rigorous time series analysis of annual water levels. The examination presented herein provides evidence that the 2010 lake level dataset at 07MC003 is flawed and should not be included in any trend analyses. With the conclusion that 2010 lake levels on Lake Athabasca at station 07MC003 are erroneous, lake level time series regressions over various timeframes between 1960 and 2009 yield widely varying degrees of non-significance and slope magnitude / direction. As a further confounding factor against mechanistic time trend analyses of water levels on Lake Athabasca, a dam and rockfill weirs were constructed on the lake outlets during the 1970s in order to maintain elevated lake levels. Thus, the entire time series of lake levels on Lake Athabasca since filling of the reservoir behind the W.A.C. Bennett Dam (Lake Williston) began in 1968 can be described as experiencing substantial anthropogenic modification. Collectively, these influences - including problems in the hydrometric record - appear to sufficiently impact the annual lake level record as to prevent reliable trend analyses that unequivocally isolate natural factors such as climate change or any other anthropogenic factors that may be operative in the source watersheds.
[20]
vixra:1212.0154 [
pdf]
Evidence for Increasingly Extreme and Variable Drought Conditions in the Contiguous United States Between 1895 and 2012
Potential annual (January-December) and summertime (June-August) regional time trends and increasingly extreme and / or variable values of Palmer-based drought indices were investigated over the contiguous United States (US) between 1895 and the present. Although there has been no significant change in the annual or summertime Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), or Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI) for the contiguous US over this time frame, there is clear evidence of decreasing drought conditions in the eastern US (northeast, east north central, central, and southeast climate zones) and increasing drought conditions in the west climate region (California and Nevada). No significant time trends were found in the annual or summertime PDSI, PHDI, and PMDI for the spring and winter wheat belts and the cotton belt. The corn and soybean belts have significant increasing trends in both the annual and summertime PDSI, PHDI, and PMDI, indicating a tendency towards reduced drought conditions over time. Clear trends exist toward increasingly extreme (dry or wet) annual PDSI, PHDI, and PMDI values in the northeast, east north central, central, northwest, and west climate regions. The northeast, northwest, and west climate zones display significant temporal trends for increasingly extreme PDSI, PHDI, and PMDI values during the summertime. Trends toward increasingly variable annual and summertime drought index values are also apparent in the northeast, southwest, northwest, and west climate zones.
[21]
vixra:1211.0002 [
pdf]
Recent Data Show no Weakening of the Walker Circulation
Various authors have examined the strength of the equatorial Pacific overturning known as the Walker Circulation in both climate models and observations, attributing a generalized weakening to anthropogenic global warming. Here we review the analysis in Power and Smith [2007] using updated Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and NINO sea surface temperature indices. We find no significant long-term changes in the indices, although the SOI appears to have recovered from an anomalously low period from 1976 to 1998. The increasing sea surface temperature in the NINO4 region is not significant, nor representative of other NINO regions. The findings of a weakening Walker circulation appear to be premature, and the corresponding climate model projections cannot be substantiated at this time. The reports of weakening of horizontal atmospheric circulation in climate models should be regarded as an inconsistency and not as an indicator of anthropogenic climate change.
[22]
vixra:1209.0088 [
pdf]
Is Temperature or the Temperature Record Rising?
In this paper, we prove a logical circularity undermines the validity of a commonly used method of homogenizing surface temperature networks. High rates of type I error due to circularity may explain the exaggeration of surface warming found in official temperature networks.
[23]
vixra:1108.0032 [
pdf]
Key Evidence for the Accumulative Model of High Solar Influence on Global Temperature
Here we present three key pieces of empirical evidence for a solar origin of recent and paleoclimate global temperature change, caused by amplification of forcings over time by the accumulation of heat in the ocean. Firstly, variations in global temperature at all time scales are more correlated with the accumulated solar anomaly than with direct solar radiation. Secondly, accumulated solar anomaly and sunspot count fits the global temperature from 1900, including the rapid increase in temperature since 1950, and the flat temperature since the turn of the century. The third, crucial piece of evidence is a 90$^{\circ}$ shift in the phase of the response of temperature to the 11 year solar cycle. These results, together with previous physical justifications, show that the accumulation of solar anomaly is a viable explanation for climate change without recourse to changes in heat-trapping greenhouse gasses.
[24]
vixra:1108.0020 [
pdf]
Accumulation of Solar Irradiance Anomaly as a Mechanism for Global Temperature Dynamics
Global temperature (GT) changes over the 20th century and glacial-interglacial periods are commonly thought to be dominated by feedbacks, with relatively small direct effects from variation of solar insolation. Here is presented a novel empirical and physically-based auto-regressive AR(1) model, where temperature response is the integral of the magnitude of solar forcing over its duration, and amplification increases with depth in the atmospheric/ocean system. The model explains 76% of the variation in GT from the 1950s by solar heating at a rate of $0.06\pm 0.03K W^{-1}m^{-2}Yr^{-1}$ relative to the solar constant of $1366Wm^{-2}$. Miss-specification of long-equilibrium dynamics by empirical fitting methods (as shown by poor performance on simulated time series) and atmospheric forcing assumptions have likely resulted in underestimation of solar influence. The solar accumulation model is proposed as a credible mechanism for explaining both paleoclimatic temperature variability and present-day warming through high sensitivity to solar irradiance anomaly.
[25]
vixra:1108.0004 [
pdf]
On the Dynamics of Global Temperature
In this alternative theory of global temperature dynamics over the annual to the glacial time scales, the accumulation of variations in solar irradiance dominates the dynamics of global temperature change. A straightforward recurrence matrix representation of the atmosphere/surface/deep ocean system, models temperature changes by (1) the size of a forcing, (2) its duration (due to accumulation of heat), and (3) the depth of forcing in the atmosphere/surface/deep ocean system (due to increasing mixing losses and increasing intrinsic gain with depth). The model can explain most of the rise in temperature since 1950, and more than 70\% of the variance with correct phase shift of the 11-year solar cycle. Global temperature displays the characteristics of an accumulative system over 6 temporal orders of magnitude, as shown by a linear $f^{-1}$ log-log relationship of frequency to the temperature range, and other statistical relationships such as near random-walk and distribution asymmetry. Over the last century, annual global surface temperature rises or falls $0.063\pm 0.028C/W/m^2$ per year when solar irradiance is greater or less than an equilibrium value of $1366W/m^2$ at top-of-atmosphere. Due to an extremely slow characteristic time scale the notion of 'equilibrium climate sensitivity' is largely superfluous. The theory does not require a range of distinctive feedback and lag parameters. Mixing losses attenuate the effectiveness of greenhouse gasses, and the amplification of solar variations by slow accumulation of heat dominates the dynamics of global temperature at all time-scales.
[26]
vixra:1103.0018 [
pdf]
Global Weather Control Using Nuclear Reactors on Geographic Poles
Geographic north and south poles are key points in global atmospheric dynamics. Taking chaos theory into account, any large perturbation in the local atmospheric velocity field at the geographic poles, has the potential of eecting weather patterns all over the globe. Generating thermal upcurrents in the atmosphere at the geographic poles using heat from nuclear reactor, opens up the possibility of benign global weather control - and a globally temperate climate.